
Duncan and colleagues obtained information about the changes in plant species for at least the last 100 years from cities all around the world: Adelaide, Auckland, Chicago, Hong Kong, Los Angeles, Melbourne, New York, San Diego, San Francisco, Singapore and Worcester, MA. The researchers wondered whether native floras in urban environments would become similar over time in the different cities as certain types of plant species did better than others. They were able to collect data on a number of plant traits that might increase or decrease the chances of a plant species surviving in these human-modified habitats. Traits included: plant height, seed mass, growth form, dispersal mode, longeviety, nutrient uptake strategy, pollination system, how prickly they were, and what habitat they preferred. Given that the cities were from all over the world, this resulted in a dataset with over 8000 plant species!
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The results, published in Global Ecology and Biogeography, were extremely variable between the cities. Extinction rates ranged from 28% (Singapore) to 1% (San Diego) although there were two major groups, one with low levels of extinction (Adelaide, Hong Kong, Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco) and the other with higher rates (the rest). Those cites with higher rates of extinction were generally those regions that had previously be cleared for agriculture before becoming urban. Of the traits associated with extinction, the biggest predictor was plant height (taller plants were less likely to go extinct - presumably because we like large trees and protect them). Species with lighter seeds and a preference for forest or riverside habitats were also more prone to extinction. Otherwise there were no consistent findings which surprised the researchers. These results suggest that there are few common pressures exerted by the urban environment at the global level.

This research suggests that it is difficult to predict which species will survive in an urban environment. This is probably because the ecology of urban areas is complex and also depends on the particular history of the area before and during urbanisation. So if you are looking for tips about surviving in the big city then it appears that there are few global answers.
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